Negbarleelectics: The missing link to Joseph Boakai’s Presidency By: Urias S. Goll & Stephen R. Johnson

It is a hoary and a trite concept that presidential election is won by the collective value and message of the team (presidential and vice presidential candidates). A single candidate, no matter the marquee status and position in society, cannot match the well-suited and strategically positioned combination of two individuals with seamless attributes for overall success. In 2005, it was not only the international acclamations and “iron lady” traits that won the elections for Madam Sirleaf.  It took the president considerable time to invest in the thoughtfulness of choosing someone who could fill out and connect the missing links to her grand cavalcade as Africa’s first democratically elected female president. In the years preceding 2005, she won the minds and spirit, undeniably, of the educated, intellectual, and urban class including women, children and, men. Her biggest challenge was connecting to the rural communities. There was no best choice other than the impecunious Ambassador Joseph Nyuma Boakai, who is famous for pedestrianly moving to Monrovia from Voinjama and serving as a janitor while acquiring secondary education. This added value from Ambassador Boakai defeated all arrays of platitudes about madam Sirleaf belonging to an elite class of Americo-Liberians and a member of the ‘Congo’ class that perpetuated segregation against the rural and indigenous communities; and that her ascendancy would be a resurgence of the True-Whig party’s hegemony. The results from 2005 remain in the annals of our nation’s battered history. In 2011, when faced with a similar challenge, it was widely rumored that the president would opt for a change. Intriguingly, it appears that the president held dearly, the value of building a strong team and the unchanging support the campaign received was because it was Ambassador Boakai again as the second man.

2017 presents similar headaches to Ambassador Boakai who is highly positioned and favored to become the next president even within the opposition community. Boakai’s biggest challenge to date is not whether he has campaign finances to engage the elections, neither the rumor that Madam Sirleaf has disavowed her support or the misconception spewed by oppositions of disunity in the unity party, but the choice for a running mate. Considering the largest opposition party, Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC), has finalized its ticket, and recently, the Liberty professed  “bombshell” of Mr. Harrison Karnwea as the running mate, which everybody predicted, attention has now shifted to Ambassador Boakai for his choice of a running mate. There are two main theories that the VP can base his judgment upon to generate the ultimate result that could land him the seat. We have opted to call the first “Nimbaism” while the other is called Negbarleelectics.

Nimbaism (self-generated word), is a concept that has overly plagued our politics because of the vote-rich nature of the North-Eastern county-Nimba. Most presidential candidates feel that they need to select a running mate from Nimba in order to enhance their chances of landing at the nation’s highest seat or at least a fair chance to the runoff. As this trite concept is widely belabored in our political discourses, one key missing factor remains unattended to: that voters from Nimba will not overwhelmingly support a candidate until approved by Senator Prince Johnson. Evidence to this idea is adduced in 2005 and 2011 elections although 2011 was a slightly different case. In 2005, Joseph Kortu, a well-educated and true son of Nimba, contested the Presidency but could barely win the County. Intriguingly, George Weah won more votes from Nimba than any other candidate including Kortu. This was highly based on Prince Johnson unfettered unannounced support for Weah. The point, proffered in this article is that Nimba County, incontrovertibly as a vote-rich county, does not out rightly vote a candidate who is not directly supported by Prince Johnson, a proclaimed “messiah” by his people. The razzle-dazzle of 2011 elections presents a more compelling evidence in support of this position. Therefore Nimbaism is not a concept to uphold in this race unless Senator Johnson raucously and publically endorses the candidate who is selected to champion the cause. Considering another candidate has been selected as running-mate from Nimba, it reduces further any chance of putting two sons of Nimba, which ultimately could split the vote, thus reducing the “vote-rich” status of the county.  The Unity Party already has a strong tie and respectable relationship with Nimba County by virtue of Mr. Wilmot Paye chairmanship and control of the party. This is even solidified by the VP stance on institutional building and respect for the party values. We need to exploit this opportunity extensively.

This leads us to another key concept affecting the selection of Amb. Boakai’s running-mate that is Negbarleelectics (Pronounced as Neg-Bar-Lee-lectics). This theory espouses the concept that Cllr. Negbarlee Warner is the perfect candidate to run alongside JNB because he undeniably brings to the table two distinct but strategic group of voters- the young people (18-45) and the Southeastern block.  Young people, since the youth bulge in the late 20^th century, which later expanded in the 21th century, have constituted the crust of any vibrant candidate in a political election. With about 68% of the population below the age of 35 (2008 census), the median age for Liberia stands at 18.3 years. About 8 years ago, the total number of persons in Liberia between the ages of 10-39 years was 1,855,317 (2008 census). This figure suggests two things: (1) it is probable that those who were between the ages of 10-17 years at the time of the census will be eligible to vote (first timer) in the 2017 elections and (2) citizens who were 35-39 years have not reached 50 years of age. If we then posit the definition of a young person as being between the ages of 15-45 years, it is inherently evident that young people who may constitute about 1.8 million of the voting population will decide the next election.  This is not an ordinary number to disregard in our democracy considering the last election of October 2011, a little over 1.2 million voters turned out to vote in the first round constituting 71% of the registered voters. If one can build a strategy around this figure, a resounding victory is inevitable.

In the 2011 presidential and legislative elections, the southeastern region accounted for 18 percent of the total votes outside of Montserrado County. As one of the highly respectable and revered sons of the southeast, Negbalee possesses the quality of being the game changer for the Ambassador’s presidency. His stance on integrity, honesty and hard work is an attribute that Liberia has been lacking and which mimics the vice President’s vision of Think Liberia, Love Liberia and Build Liberia vision. While Cllr. Warner, arguably, may not come from a vote-rich county, his immaculate employment and work history both in the public and private sectors imbued with his relatively young age status and energy resonates with voters from all sphere of life. As likened to the messiah in the holy book, Cllr. Warner “was doing good, everywhere he went.” Adducing from the records, Cllr. Warner began his actual academic life at the University of Liberia where he graduated with honors and later matriculated to Law school and excelled exceedingly (graduating with honors). As one of the few Liberians to possess a graduate (Masters of Law degree) from the prestigious Cornell Law School, Negbalee has made significant contributions towards enhancing our legal system. He worked as legal counsel for Central Bank of Liberia in his early professional career and later moved to the Tweh and Associates while teaching at the Law School. When the Carbon Harvesting issue popped, the President consulted her integrity notebook and selected Negbalee to lead the investigation, which resulted in the exposure of the entrenched syndicate operating to defraud the Liberia Government of millions. Based on his work within the environmental and resource governance sector, Negbalee moved to the Liberia Extractive Transparency Initiative (LEITI) secretariat as head. During his tenure, the LEITI facilitated Liberia compliance status with the EITI global and was recognized as a country striving to ensure transparency within the resource governance sector. After an exceptional performance at LEITI, he opened his law firm, Heritage Partners and Associates, and continued teaching at the Law School. It will interest you to note, that Associate Professor Warner is one of the 3 Liberians legal scholars who has written a textbook used by the Lewis Arthur Grimes School of Law as primary resource material. Cllr. Warner later served on the Board of LPRC but unfortunately, resigned because of management’s deviation from his ethical values and standards. When Dean Jallah of Law School decided it was time to move on, there was one name that reverberated in the minds and spirit of the university authority-Associate Professor Negbalee Warner. To date, Nebalee is one of the few Liberians to become a member of the New York Bar Association.

While there are other names rumored as running mate to Vice President Boakai, It is uncontested that Cllr. Negbalee value and contributions to the JNB team is astoundingly glaring. He possesses the quality to attract votes from the young, old, intellectual class, integrity group, women, traditional leaders, and the comrades on the streets (zogos). A person likened to Amb. Boakai, who espouses and lives by the tenants of honesty and integrity, must not relent on selecting a man with unquestionable character and integrity. Ambassador Boakai should pick Negbalee because he connects with the younger generation and the intellectual class. He meets all standards and will bring a new and refreshed energy to the Presidency. The Negbaleelectics theory is what has been the missing link from the Vice President and Unity Party’s strategy. Let’s pick Negbalee and fire up ourselves to win the Presidency of Liberia!

The NAKED Truth About 2017: An Analysis

Stephen Johnson 

The dawn of 2017 signals a new beginning for many Liberians. In addition to the many New Year’s resolutions, it is the year in which Liberians are expected to go to the polls to elect a president along with 73 representatives for the next six years. The process that has commenced with a voters’ registration exercise has seen many first-time voters forming long queues just to exercise their right as Liberian citizens. While it is true that many are reluctant and do not see the need to vote, others have mustered the courage to effect the change they believe will continue the country’s path to upward mobility. Amid all of these activities, there are a number of Liberians that have expressed their interest to lead the country for the next six years. Notable among them are; Joseph N. Boakai, Charles Brumskine, George Weah, Prince Y. Johnson, Alex Cummings, Mills Jones, Benoni Urey, among others.

With pockets of political discussions being held at every street corner, one automatically realizes how politically charged the country is becoming. Whether it was among money exchangers or “Keh-Keh” riders or among market women and petty traders, a number of names seem to emerge as the frontrunners. It is against this background that I have opted to provide a perspective of those potential frontrunners and spoilers, coupled with their chance of winning in October.

Prince Y. Johnson

Even though there aren’t many indications that he is a candidate, here is someone whose participation could leave the field wide open due to the fact that Nimba is a vote-rich or swing terrain, especially given his past performances during the 2005 and 2011 presidential and legislative elections. This time around, Johnson’s presence in the race will open up the elections and reduce the chance of a first round win for any candidate. His presence in the race will spell danger for political parties that have opted to select vice candidates from Nimba in an attempt to lure the county’s votes.  Whether the 2011 elections results are a thing to rely upon, collecting over 100,000 of the votes is enough reason why PYJ remains a frontrunner. His erratic behavior remains his Achilles heels.

Prediction: PYJ will finish 3^RD PLACE.

Mills Jones

Dubbed as the “poverty doctor” across many rural communities including the urban and peri-urban areas, Jones has made for himself a name. His loan program to market women across the country appears to have reaped some dividend in many areas. Even though his political strength is yet to be tested, the history of BIG spending in Liberian politics could be a case study for the Poverty Doctor to tread gingerly. The likes of Varney Sherman and Kennedy Sandy are classic examples. Howbeit voters’ deceit with big spenders, Mills remains a highly popular in his native Sinoe County. While Sinoe is not a vote-rich corridor, Mills could collect scattered votes from across the Southeastern belt that comprise of Rivergee, Maryland, Sinoe, parts of Grand Gedeh and Grand Kru counties. Such solidarity could make Mills a potential spoiler for candidates like Alexander Cummings who claims his lineage from Maryland County. On the downside, the “Americo-Liberian” branding remains his major disadvantage.

Prediction: Mills will finish 7^TH PLACE.

Benoni Urey

Urey has been actively involved with the politics of Liberia especially of late. Taking some rather tough stance on issues especially with the national budget may have helped to some extent his liability about amassing ill-gotten wealth during the heyday of Taylor’s regime. He seems to be making inroads especially in the “Congo” settlements around Liberia. His party’s presence in some of the remotest counties across the country has given him visibility. Even though he might not win any particular county outright, he might collect random votes from across the country. This makes him a potential spoiler for other parties. The Lone Star Cell “3 days’ free call” rigmarole seems to have undermined his chances of late since many Liberians are of the view that it was a calculated ploy to rob them in order to raise campaign fund. Though it may not be true, it is a propaganda that has worked effectively against him.  Whatever the case, Urey is a potential spoiler.

Prediction: Urey will finish 8^TH PLACE.

Alex Cummings

Known as the “Coca-Cola” man, Cummings is already making a name for himself. He has been touring the country with his message and positive criticism of the current regime. In the process, Cummings has been attracting many voters especially those who think that the CDC and the UP aren’t an option at this point in time. Cummings’ recent appearance at the ATS to launch his voters’ registration campaign has sent shockwaves across the city. If he wasn’t taken seriously at first, many have started rethinking. His main political capital is that many believe he is not the typical Liberian politician and is free of the many labels that accompany public service jobs. Cummings appears to be very popular in his native Maryland but with the county’s two senators recently endorsing the UP’s candidate, winning the county will seem to be an uphill task for him. More so, Cummings’ appeal cuts across the country but given the polarized nature of our body politics, that wouldn’t be enough to catapult him into winning the presidency. He will need to win some of the major vote-rich counties like Nimba, Bong, Margibi, Lofa, and Grand Bassa and then put up a strong fight in Montserrado County. To win the presidency of Liberia after having been away for protracted years remains his major challenge. He is a potential spoiler.

Prediction: Cummings will finish 5^TH PLACE.

George Weah

His cult personality continues to reap dividends for him. Though his popularity has dwindled over time with his inability to deliver the goods as senator for the largest constituents, few think it is his year. His party over the last few years has suffered some major defections. The breakaway of the ANC, Benoni Urey and a few others seem to have affected the party’s ability to amass the kind of vote needed to win the presidency. Recent criticism about his failure to adequately represent Liberia at the ECOWAS parliament seems to be gaining traction about his ability to become president of Liberia. Amid all of this, he seems very popular among first-time voters, many of who are sports enthusiasts. His recent selection of Jewel Taylor as his running may accrue him some votes in Bong county. However, Jewel’s last election statistics aren’t indicative of a very convincing win of the county.  With the likes of Sulunteh et al contemplating on joining the race, it could further dampen the CDC’s chances. However, Montserrado County remains his stronghold even though the last presidential elections showed a narrow margin win over the UP (less than 1%). Howbeit the deficits, Weah’s assets in terms of popular appeal could be enough to leapfrog him into the runoff. Weah’s inexperience, lack of judgment and his inability to adequately express himself remain his major challenge. He is a frontrunner, though.

Prediction: Weah will finish 2^ND PLACE.  (Make it to the Runoff)

Charles W. Brumskine

Brumskine is a very seasoned Liberian lawyer and politician who has been involved with the politics over the last 20 years. He has made for himself a brand name that is very familiar among many households. Referred to as the “Bassa” candidate, he is very popular along the Grand Bassa, Rivercess, and portions of Bong, Margibi and Nimba belt. After finishing an impressive 3^rd in 2005, his popularity experienced a shocking nosedive in 2011 leaving him in a distant 4^th behind Prince Johnson. Of late, the party seems to have regained traction and has witnessed an avalanche of many new entrants. Howbeit, the narrative across the country about him being favored by President Sirleaf simply because he is “Congo” seems to be negatively impacting on his chances. Additional, the presence of Alex Cummings in the race appears to be a major disadvantage for the Liberty Party who could be deprived of the majority undecided and first-time voters to join their ranks. In order for the LP to make it to the runoff, she will need every available vote including discouraged voters that are on the rise. His recent appearance at soccer stadia and his involvement with the national team (Lone Star) could reap him dividends. While he has clearly articulated his vision for Liberia, many everyday Liberians still see him as aloof. Should Prince Johnson not contest, Brumskine stands a better shot at making it to the 3^rd.  He is a frontrunner.

Prediction: Brumskine will finish 4^TH PLACE.

Joseph N. Boakai

Coming from the forest of Lofa to the shores of Montserrado, Joseph Boakai seems to have the badge of the typical grassroots credentials. He has been around the body politics for many years -something which has given him a considerable understanding of the landscape. More so, being a Vice for 12 years, he brings to the fray a knowledge base about the inner workings of government and an appreciation of the geopolitical terrain. He seems better prepared ahead of the rest of the candidates,  but it is not a walk in the park for him. The downsides of the current administration will no doubt rub on him. The argument about continuity of the current status quo will be a question he will have to grapple with throughout the campaign. Howbeit, there seems to be a consensus across the landscape about him being representative of the indigenous leader the country has yearned for many years. Recent endorsements by senators from opposition political parties are all indications of a politician who reaches across the aisle. More so, a scattered opposition has increased his chances thus making him the lead frontrunner.

Prediction: JNB will finish 1^ST PLACE (Make it to the runoff).

Conclusion

As was the case in 2005 and 2011, the 2017 runoff will witness the same players (UP vs. CDC). It will be a decision between continuing with the status quo or entrusting the country with Weah. Clearly, it doesn’t seem to be a difficult choice to make but again, the recent wave of change across the globe could be something for us to take into consideration. The message and connectedness of the candidates will prove vital in the end. Judgment and experience will also interplay since many wish to see the country continue on a trajectory towards a post-conflict success story. The challenge for many of the other candidates will be to defeat the UP or the CDC in order to make it to the runoff. Though it seems like an act of impossibility, it is doable with hard work, messaging, creating a competitive advantage and most of all, winning the HEARTS of Liberians. Additionally, a crowded political field plays at the advantage of the incumbent and with the current wave of discontentment among oppositions either due to shady political deals or subtle maneuverings; the UP is in the driver’s seat. Amid all of this, I am predicting a win for Joseph N. Boakai. However, nothing is written in stones; and these predictions could change as new variables interplay in the months leading up to October.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Stephen Johnson holds a Bachelor of Science degree (BSc.) in Economics and a Master Degree (MBA, Highest Honors) in Finance. A post graduate Leadership Certificate from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and has a Master in Public Policy from the Penn State University. He has represented Liberia at several global interactions in his capacity as Assistant Commissioner of Customs & Excise, Senior Economist and Technical Focal Point (Ministry of Finance and Development Planning) at the Spring Meetings, IMF/World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016, the ECOWAS Council of Ministers, Dakar, Senegal, the Common External Tariff (CET), Abidjan, Ivory Coast, ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) meeting of Experts, Abuja, Nigeria and the Mano River Union’s (MRU) Technical committee of Experts on Peace and Security, Abidjan, Ivory Coast. He also served as the focal point at the African Peer Review Mechanism, Johannesburg, South Africa among others. He can be reached at srj131@psu.edu.